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Three European officials told CNN on Wednesday that Germany, France and the United Kingdom are expected to move to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran this week.

The so-called “snapback” mechanism is part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and could be triggered as soon as Thursday. It takes 30 days to fully reimpose the sanctions, leaving a narrow window of time for diplomacy before the UN process is complete.

European leaders are hoping Iran will use that time to reengage in meaningful talks, allow its facilities to be inspected by international inspectors and take steps to come into compliance with its nuclear obligations.

Iran has threatened harsh retaliation, however, should the sanctions be reimposed, and experts warn that could trigger more instability in the Middle East following a recent conflict.

Snapback Deadline Looms

The snapback provision of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal allows member nations to bring back UN sanctions in the event Iran breaches its obligations under the agreement. That authority to snap back sanctions will expire in October.

Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear program since former US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. It has broken past limits on its program put in place under the nuclear deal with the United States and its European allies. Tehran has claimed its program is strictly for peaceful purposes, but inspectors and experts warn that its growing capabilities are now moving toward weapons-grade levels.

“It is not possible to go back to what we had as the JCPOA because Iran has crossed many thresholds and IAEA thresholds,” Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said Wednesday. “Going back to the original JCPOA would be almost impossible.”

Rubio, the US Secretary of State, who was in touch with European counterparts this week as they weighed triggering the snapback mechanism, said on Wednesday it provided “a very powerful piece of leverage on the Iranian regime.”

Inspectors Back, Temporarily

Iran’s parliament passed a law in July to end cooperation with international inspectors. But the IAEA has confirmed its inspectors are back at some of Iran’s nuclear sites, including at the Bushehr nuclear power plant on Wednesday.

“Today we are inspecting Bushehr,” Grossi said to reporters in Washington on Wednesday. “We are continuing the conversation so that we can go to all places, including the facilities that have been attacked.”

The IAEA’s inspections are part of the safeguards established under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), of which Iran is still a signatory. Reuters reported last month that Iran was also weighing withdrawal from the NPT if sanctions were triggered.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged the IAEA inspectors were at the Bushehr plant to monitor the replacement of fuel following a June 23 strike there. Araghchi said it was the decision of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to allow the inspectors, but he denied any broader agreement for “new cooperation.”

The Fallout from War

Iran’s nuclear facilities were hit by Israel in a series of attacks in June. It triggered a 12-day conflict in which Iran also retaliated with missile and drone attacks against Israeli cities and US forces participated in the final days, attacking three Iranian sites.

The IAEA inspectors left Iran in July, citing the impossibility of working in a wartime setting. In July, a US satellite photo company identified apparent damage to the entrances of Iran’s Isfahan Nuclear Technology Research Center.

Iran alleged the IAEA had helped Israel justify its strikes against Iran by publicizing non-compliance with safeguards rules.

Iran Divided

Iran’s decision to allow at least some IAEA inspectors into certain sites has drawn criticism from inside the country. The leader of a parliamentary committee, Kamran Ghazanfari, has attacked Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s statement supporting the limited inspections as an “explicit violation” of Iran’s parliament’s laws suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

Iran’s parliament had passed a law suspending cooperation with IAEA inspectors in July after the Israel-Iran conflict. It presented the legislation as a protection against foreign aggression and an assertion of sovereignty against what it called biased IAEA reporting.

Europeans failed to make any progress in talks with Iran on Tuesday in Geneva in an 11th-hour attempt to forestall the sanctions snapback. But diplomats and other sources said little progress was made in those meetings.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who had been in touch with Iranian counterparts in Vienna before the conflict, had also been engaged in diplomatic efforts to reach a new nuclear agreement, sources have told CNN. But they have all but ground to a halt in the wake of the war.

Grossi expressed hope the next month could lead to de-escalation. “Don’t forget that there is still time, even if there is the triggering thing, there is a month, and many things could happen,” he said Wednesday.