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Roscosmos, the Russian state space corporation, expects to have the Soyuz-5 rocket launch in December, the corporation’s chief Dmitry Bakanov told TASS news agency in an interview.

“Yes, we are planning for December,” he said. “Everything is in place.”

December would bring the Soyuz-5’s test flight, which has been under development for more than 10 years. The rocket is a modernized version of the Zenit-2 medium-lift rocket developed in the 1980s by Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in Ukraine and built by Yuzhmash in Dnipro, Ukraine.

Zenit rockets launched from Baikonur Cosmodrome flew dozens of missions from late Soviet period to the 2010s.

The Ukrainian Zenit rockets were based on a powerful RD-171 engine that at the time was among the most powerful liquid fueled rocket engines, designed in Russia by NPO Energomash. Zenit was produced in several versions with payloads in 21, 24, 27, 31, and 36 ton-to-LEO (low-Earth orbit) classes.

After the Soviet Union collapse, Zenit production remained divided between the Ukrainian and Russian factories. The uneasy partnership held for years, with Ukraine building rocket stages and Russia supplying engines, until Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

In fact, Russia’s missile destroyed the former Zenit production facility with a ballistic missile in late 2023, confirming the end of hope for the possible cooperation renewal. Against this background, the Russian government has pushed to bring the Soyuz-5 to replace Zenit rockets with a domestically produced version.

Moscow completed the Soyuz-5 static fire test, reports TASS. The booster measures 49 meters in height and is designed to carry payloads weighing 17 metric tons into low Earth orbit (LEO).

The Soyuz-5 booster, with a basic configuration of two side-mounted boosters and a central core, has taken only minor design changes from its Zenit-2 predecessor. The booster’s most powerful feature is its RD-171MV engine, the latest iteration of the Energomash design that powered the Soviet Union’s Energia rocket and the Zenit rocket family. The RD-171MV does not include Ukrainian parts, allowing the Russian space program to operate independently of Ukraine.

The rocket’s four RD-171MV first-stage engines burn kerosene and liquid oxygen, producing more than three times as much thrust as one of NASA’s Space Shuttle main engines. As a result, the RD-171MV engine is currently the most powerful liquid-fueled rocket engine in the world.

However, Soyuz-5 is not an innovation. To the contrary, it is seen by space industry analysts as a “polished old Soviet design,” as noted by independent Russian space journalist Elena Shipitsyna.

Soyuz-5, a Transitional Step for Roscosmos

The Soyuz-5 is a transitional measure for Roscosmos. It is more than an updated Zenit, as it represents a boost for the Russian government’s ultimate goal of cutting out Ukrainian components, as well as the old Proton-M rocket production lines.

The current plan is to replace Soyuz-2 rockets, which require Ukrainian-made components, and the aging Proton-M series, with the Soyuz-5.

It also is not the “next generation” vehicle Roscosmos is building. The latter was originally Soyuz-7, also known as Amur. The latter vehicle, equipped with reusable first stages powered by liquid oxygen-methane engines, has been heavily delayed.

Launch of Soyuz-7 has been moved to 2030 at least, while Roscosmos has managed to bring Soyuz-5 to the launch pad at Baikonur.

Commercial Aspects of Soyuz-5

A big question mark remains in the Soyuz-5 program: will it fly commercially and even profitably? Russia uses Soyuz-2 to launch crew missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and recently introduced Angara rockets for large satellites and space station modules. Both lines have sold a handful of launches to international customers, but it has been clear for years that Soyuz-2 and Angara rockets would not solve the Russian space industry’s commercial problems.

SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rockets have transformed the launch market, making Soyuz-5 an old design. SpaceX has also reached far more significant commercial success.

Roscosmos may have several Soyuz-5 in orbit in the next few years to keep commercial sales high, but some experts wonder if the rocket has a realistic long-term future. The company does not have a demonstrated answer to the Falcon 9’s reusability.

The fact that Roscosmos has managed to bring Soyuz-5 to the launch pad under war-time economic conditions is a major achievement. A December test flight success would go a long way to showing that despite the sanctions, budget cuts and political isolation, Russia’s space industry can still produce new vehicles.